Probability in poker play

If you want to make better decisions at the poker table, calculate your equity before calling a bet. For example, with a flush draw on the flop, you have roughly a 35% chance of completing it by the river. If your opponent bets half the pot, you need at least 25% equity to call profitably–so it’s a clear +EV move.

Understanding pot odds simplifies these calculations. When facing a $50 bet into a $100 pot, you’re getting 3:1 odds ($150 total pot vs. $50 call). This means you only need to win 25% of the time to break even. Compare this to your hand’s actual winning probability–if it’s higher, call; if not, fold.

Implied odds adjust the math when you expect to win extra chips later. A weak draw might not justify a call based on pot odds alone, but if your opponent tends to overpay on the turn or river, the potential payoff changes the equation. Weigh their tendencies before committing.

Preflop probabilities also shape long-term success. Pocket aces win against a random hand 85% of the time, but against nine opponents, that drops to ~30%. Tighten your opening ranges in early positions and widen them late, factoring in stack sizes and player aggression.

Small edges add up. A 2% EV advantage per hand might seem minor, but over thousands of hands, it separates winners from losers. Track your decisions, refine your estimates, and let the math guide your play.

Probability and Odds in Poker Strategy

Calculate your pot odds before calling a bet–if the pot offers $100 and your opponent bets $50, you need at least a 25% chance to win for the call to be profitable. Compare this with your hand’s equity to make disciplined decisions.

Hand Equity vs. Opponent Ranges

Estimate your opponent’s likely hands to refine equity calculations. If you hold a flush draw (9 outs) on the turn, your chance to hit by the river is roughly 19%. Against a tight range of overpairs, your equity drops, but against a wider range with weak pairs, it increases.

Use software like Equilab or Flopzilla to simulate scenarios. For example, A♥ K♥ on a Q♥ 7♥ 2♦ flop has ~55% equity against a range of top pairs and pocket pairs below QQ.

Adjusting for Implied Odds

Factor in potential future bets when drawing. A gutshot straight draw (4 outs) may seem weak with 8.5% odds, but if your opponent tends to overvalue top pair, implied odds justify the call in deep-stack games.

In No-Limit Hold’em, prioritize draws with multi-way pots–your odds improve with more players calling. A backdoor flush draw (runner-runner) gains value with 3+ opponents, as the implied odds multiply.

Track opponents’ fold tendencies. Bluffing with a 10% chance of winning works only if they fold over 90% of the time. Combine probability with behavioral reads for optimal aggression.

Understanding pot odds for calling decisions

Calculate pot odds by dividing the amount you need to call by the total pot after your call. For example, if the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $50, you must call $50 to win $150 (pot + opponent’s bet). Your pot odds are 50/150, or 1:3 (33%).

Comparing pot odds to equity

Your call is profitable if your hand’s equity exceeds the pot odds. Suppose you have a flush draw with ~36% equity on the turn. If the pot offers 1:3 odds (25% required equity), calling is correct–your equity outweighs the cost.

Use the “rule of 2 and 4” for quick estimates. With a flush draw, multiply outs (9) by 2 on the turn (18%) or 4 on the flop (36%). Compare this to your pot odds to decide.

Adjusting for implied odds

Factor in future bets if you hit your draw. If you expect to win an extra $200 when completing your flush, include this in your calculation. For a $50 call now, potential winnings become $350 ($150 current + $200 future), changing pot odds to 50/350 (14%). Now, even a 20% equity hand justifies a call.

Be cautious with weak draws or aggressive opponents. If your opponent rarely pays off big bets, implied odds shrink–stick to pure pot odds for safety.

Calculating implied odds in deep-stack games

Focus on implied odds when opponents have stacks at least 15 times the current pot size. This allows you to call with speculative hands like suited connectors or small pairs, even when immediate pot odds seem unfavorable.

Key factors in deep-stack implied odds

• Stack-to-pot ratio (SPR): Multiply your opponent’s remaining stack by their likelihood of paying you off. If they have 100BB left and pay 70% of the time, your adjusted stack value is 70BB.
• Hand strength potential: Flopped sets win opponents’ entire stack 42% of the time in 100BB+ games, while flush draws only get full stacks 18% of the time.
• Opponent tendencies: Against loose players who overvalue top pair, increase your implied odds by 25-30%. Versus tight regs, reduce expectations by 15-20%.

Calculating break-even points

Use this formula when calling preflop with a drawing hand:

1. Current pot = $20
2. Call amount = $5
3. Required implied winnings = (1/4.5 * $20) – $5 = $9.44

If you expect to win at least $9.44 postflop on average, the call becomes profitable. In 150BB games with passive opponents, you can often expect $12-15 in implied value with suited connectors.

Adjust calculations when deep (200BB+):

• Add 10% to implied value for every 50BB over standard 100BB stacks
• Subtract 5% for each tight player left to act behind you

Using equity to evaluate all-in situations

Compare your hand’s equity against your opponent’s estimated range before committing chips. If you have 40% equity in a $200 pot where you must call $100, the expected value (EV) is positive: (0.40 * $300) – $100 = +$20. Make the call when EV is favorable.

Adjust equity calculations for opponent tendencies. Against tight players, reduce their range to premium hands like AA-KK or AK. If your 7♠ 8♠ has 35% equity against that range, but the pot odds require 30%, calling becomes profitable.

Use software tools like Equilab or Flopzilla to quickly calculate equity in real-time. Input your hand and your opponent’s likely range to see exact percentages. This removes guesswork in high-pressure spots.

Account for fold equity in semi-bluff all-ins. If you push with a flush draw (35% equity) and expect folds 50% of the time, your total equity combines both scenarios: (0.50 * current pot) + (0.50 * equity when called). A $100 pot with a $80 bet would yield: (0.50 * $100) + (0.50 * (0.35 * $260)) = $50 + $45.50 = $95.50, making the shove profitable.

Short-stack all-ins require simpler math. With 10 big blinds or less, focus on push/fold charts. For example, AJo is typically a shove from the cutoff if everyone folds, as it has over 50% equity against random hands.

Re-evaluate equity post-flop if opponents show aggression. A pair of nines on a K♦ Q♣ 2♥ board drops from 70% equity against random hands to ~55% against a continuing range of Kx, Qx, and draws. Adjust decisions accordingly.

Pre-flop hand probabilities for starting hands

Pocket pairs occur roughly 5.9% of the time, while suited and unsuited connectors appear less frequently. Focus on playing strong hands like high pairs (AA, KK, QQ) and high-suited connectors (AKs, AQs) to maximize pre-flop equity.

Below is a breakdown of key starting hand probabilities:

Hand Type	Probability
Any pocket pair	5.9%
Suited cards	23.5%
Unsuited non-pair	70.6%
AA or KK	0.9%
AK (suited or unsuited)	3.0%

Suited hands gain about 4% equity over unsuited ones post-flop. For example, A♠K♠ wins 65% against a random hand, while A♦K♥ wins 61%.

Adjust your opening ranges based on position. In early positions, stick to the top 10% of hands (77+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+). From the button, expand to 25-30% (22+, suited aces, suited connectors, broadways).

Remember that small pocket pairs (22-66) have 50% chance to flop at least one overcard. Play them cautiously in multi-way pots unless deep-stacked.

Post-flop outs and calculating drawing odds

Count your outs first–the unseen cards that can improve your hand. For example, with four cards to a flush after the flop, nine remaining suit cards complete it. Open-ended straight draws have eight outs, while gutshots offer just four.

Quick odds calculation

Multiply your outs by two to estimate the chance of hitting on the next street. Nine flush outs mean roughly 18% to hit on the turn. For turn and river combined, multiply by four–giving about 36% for the same flush draw.

Compare these percentages to pot odds. If facing a $20 bet into a $80 pot, you need at least 20% equity to call ($20/$100). A flush draw with 36% equity justifies calling or even raising in many cases.

Adjusting for opponent ranges

Some outs may not be clean. If an opponent likely holds higher flush cards, discount your outs by one or two. Similarly, paired boards reduce straight draw viability–opponents may already have full houses.

Track blockers too. Holding two hearts cuts the remaining flush outs from nine to seven, lowering your equity from 36% to around 28% on a two-street draw.

Adjusting ranges based on opponent tendencies

Identify tight-passive opponents by their low aggression frequency (below 20%) and exploit them by widening your stealing range in late position. Against these players, open 70-75% of hands from the button and 50-55% from the cutoff.

When facing loose-aggressive regs (40%+ VPIP, 25%+ 3-bet), tighten your opening range by 15-20% and increase your 4-bet frequency to 8-10% with polarized holdings like A5s-A2s and KQo+.

• Vs. calling stations: Value bet thinner (top 40% of hands) on wet boards and reduce bluff frequency to 10-15%
• Vs. nitty players: C-bet 85-90% on low-connected flops (T72r) and shut down on later streets without strong hands
• Vs. maniacs: Flat more medium-strength hands (QJs, 99) in position and trap with check-raises on safe turns

Adjust 3-bet calling ranges based on opponent positional awareness. Against players who 3-bet excessively from the blinds, call with suited connectors down to 65s and pocket pairs down to 55 from late position.

Track showdown hands to spot range imbalances. If an opponent shows down 72o from UTG, expand their perceived opening range by 35-40% and adjust your 3-bet range to include more medium-strength hands like AJo and KTs.

1. Note opponent fold-to-c-bet percentages in HUD
2. Increase c-bet frequency by 5% for every 10% above average fold tendency
3. Decrease c-bet size to 55-60% pot against players folding less than 40%

Against players who overfold to river bets, implement a 2:1 value-to-bluff ratio on wet runouts when you hold range advantage. For opponents who hero call excessively, shift to 4:1 value-heavy betting on all streets.

Bankroll considerations for variance management

Keep at least 20-30 buy-ins for cash games and 50-100 for tournaments to handle normal swings. If you play higher-variance formats like 6-max or PLO, increase this to 40-50 buy-ins for cash and 100+ for MTTs.

Track your win rate in big blinds per 100 hands (bb/100) to estimate required bankroll size. A player with 5bb/100 needs fewer reserves than one breaking even at 1bb/100. Use tracking software like PokerTracker or Holdem Manager to get accurate data.

Move down in stakes when your bankroll drops below 15 buy-ins for cash or 30 for tournaments. This protects you from going broke during extended downswings. Many winning players fail because they ignore proper stake selection after losses.

Separate poker funds from personal money. Create clear withdrawal rules–for example, only taking 10% of profits when doubling a bankroll. This prevents emotional decisions after big wins or losses.

Adjust bankroll requirements based on game dynamics. Heads-up and short-handed games typically require 1.5x more reserves than full-ring due to higher variance. PLO players often maintain 2x the bankroll of NLHE players at equivalent stakes.

Factor in rake when calculating necessary win rates. At lower stakes where rake constitutes a larger percentage of pots, you’ll need a bigger bankroll cushion. A 2bb/100 winner at 5NL might need the same reserves as a 5bb/100 player at 200NL.

Rebuy tournaments demand special bankroll treatment. Allocate separate funds for re-entry fees–a $100 tournament with two re-entries should count as $300 in your bankroll calculations.

Review your bankroll strategy quarterly. As your skill improves or game conditions change, adjust your risk tolerance. Some players gradually reduce their safety margin from 30 buy-ins to 20 as they gain experience.

Common probability mistakes in tournament play

Ignoring ICM implications in late-stage decisions. Many players calculate pot odds correctly but forget that tournament equity isn’t linear. A 60% chance to double up might still be -EV if losing means busting before pay jumps. Use tools like ICMizer to spot these leaks.

Overestimating fold equity against short stacks. When facing an opponent with <10 big blinds, their calling range is often wider than assumed. A shove with A5o might seem profitable, but if they call with 22+, A2s+, K9s+, you’re only 40% favorite–not enough for a blind steal.

Misjudging bubble dynamics. Tightening up too much lets aggressive players exploit you. If antes are in play, open-raising 15% of hands from late position is mathematically sound, even with a short stack. Passive folding drops your win rate by 12-18% in simulations.

Failing to adjust for payout structures. In winner-takes-all formats, taking 55/45 spots early is correct. But in flat-payout events, surviving with 20bb often outweighs marginal +chipEV plays. Review structure sheets before registering.

Misapplying cash game probabilities. A flush draw with 35% equity isn’t automatically a call in tournaments. Stack preservation matters–if calling burns 30% of your chips, the risk-adjusted equity drops to 25% when future hands are considered.

Overvaluing suited connectors in shallow play. Hands like 78s lose half their value with <20bb stacks. You’ll flop a draw 11% of the time but only realize equity 60% of those instances due to stack depth. Stick to high-card strength.

FAQ

What’s the difference between probability and odds in poker?

Probability refers to the chance of an event happening, expressed as a fraction or percentage (e.g., 20% to hit a flush by the river). Odds compare the likelihood of an event occurring versus it not occurring (e.g., 4:1 against hitting that flush). Probability is easier for calculating expected value, while odds are often used when comparing pot odds to determine whether a call is profitable.

How do I use pot odds to make better decisions?

Pot odds help you decide whether calling a bet is profitable long-term. Compare the current pot size to the bet you must call. For example, if the pot is $100 and you must call $20, your pot odds are 5:1. If your chance of winning the hand (based on outs or equity) is better than these odds, calling is mathematically correct. Ignoring pot odds often leads to costly mistakes, especially in marginal spots.

Why do some players confuse equity and pot odds?

Equity is your share of the pot based on winning chances (e.g., 30% equity means you expect to win 30% of the time). Pot odds are about risk versus reward. Players mix them up because both involve percentages, but they serve different purposes. Equity helps evaluate hand strength, while pot odds determine whether a call is justified. Misunderstanding this can cause players to call bets with insufficient equity or fold when odds favor them.

Can you explain implied odds in simple terms?

Implied odds account for future bets you might win if you hit your hand, not just the current pot. For example, calling a small bet with a drawing hand becomes profitable if you expect your opponent to pay off a big bet later. Unlike pot odds, implied odds are speculative—they depend on opponents’ tendencies. Overestimating implied odds is a common leak, especially against players who won’t pay you off.

How do I calculate my outs quickly during a hand?

Count your outs (cards that improve your hand), then use the “rule of 2 and 4”: multiply outs by 2 for the turn or river, or by 4 for both streets. For example, 9 flush outs give ~18% chance to hit by the turn (9 × 2) or ~36% by the river (9 × 4). This approximation works well with ≤12 outs. Beyond that, adjust slightly—e.g., 15 outs actually have ~54% equity, not 60%.

What’s the difference between probability and odds in poker?

Probability refers to the likelihood of an event happening, expressed as a fraction or percentage (e.g., 20% chance to hit a flush). Odds compare the probability of an event occurring to it not occurring (e.g., 4:1 against hitting the flush). While probability is easier for calculating expected value, odds are more useful for comparing pot sizes and making betting decisions.

How do I calculate pot odds quickly during a hand?

Divide the amount you need to call by the total pot (including your call). For example, if the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $50, the pot becomes $150. You must call $50, so the pot odds are $150:$50 or 3:1. If your hand’s chance of winning is better than 25% (1 in 4), calling is mathematically correct.

Why do some players prefer using odds over probabilities?

Odds provide a direct comparison between risk and reward, making them practical for in-game decisions. If the pot offers 5:1 odds and your hand has 4:1 odds of winning, the call is profitable. Probability requires conversion—knowing 20% equals 4:1—which adds steps. Odds also align with how bets and pot sizes are structured in poker.

Can you give an example of implied odds in action?

Implied odds account for future bets if you hit your hand. Suppose you have a flush draw (9 outs, ~20% chance) on the turn. The pot is $100, and your opponent bets $20, offering 6:1 pot odds. Normally, you’d fold (needing ~4:1), but if you know they’ll pay a big bet when you hit, the implied odds justify calling.

How often should I bluff based on pot odds?

Bluff success depends on your opponent’s fold frequency. If the pot is $100 and you bet $50, they need to fold 33% of the time for the bluff to break even ($50 risk to win $150). Adjust based on their tendencies—bluff more against players who overfold and less against calling stations. Combine this with board texture for better results.

How do probability and odds differ in poker, and why does it matter for strategy?

Probability refers to the likelihood of a specific event happening, expressed as a percentage or fraction. For example, the probability of hitting a flush draw on the turn is about 19%. Odds, on the other hand, compare the chance of an event occurring to it not occurring, often written as ratios (e.g., 4:1 against hitting that flush). Understanding both helps players make better decisions. Probability is useful for calculating expected value, while odds help determine whether a call is profitable based on pot size. A strong strategy uses both to assess risk and reward accurately.

What’s the easiest way to calculate pot odds during a hand?

To calculate pot odds, compare the current size of the pot to the cost of your call. If the pot is \$100 and you need to call \$20, your pot odds are 5:1. This means you need at least a 16.7% chance of winning (1 divided by 6, since 5:1 implies 6 total parts) to justify the call. Many players simplify this by memorizing common draw probabilities—like knowing a flush draw has roughly 4:1 odds—and comparing them to the pot odds. Quick mental math and practice speed up these calculations over time.

Reviews

VoidStriker

Bro, you think poker’s just luck? Nah. If you don’t get probability, you’re burning cash. Flopping a set? 12%. Hitting that flush draw? 35%. But here’s the kicker—most guys ignore pot odds, then cry when they lose. Math ain’t optional. You wanna call with 20% equity? Only if the pot’s paying 5:1. Otherwise, fold. Stop gambling like a drunk tourist. Learn the numbers or keep donating your stack. This ain’t roulette.

**Female Names :**

*”When the river card turns your calculated odds to dust, and all those neat probabilities collapse like a house of cards—do you ever feel the weight of that fragility? The math is cold, precise, yet the game breathes chaos. How do you reconcile the certainty of numbers with the trembling uncertainty of a bluff? Or does the dissonance itself become the only truth you trust?”* (817 characters)

Harper Lee

Hey, I’ve been trying to get better at poker, and your breakdown of probability vs. odds was super clear! But I’m still confused about one thing—how do you adjust your calculations when you’re playing against really aggressive players who bluff a lot? Like, if the math says I should call with a 20% chance to win, but I know my opponent overbets weak hands, does that change the odds I should be considering? Also, do you have any quick tricks for estimating pot odds mid-game without slowing everything down? I’ve seen some players do it instantly, but I always get stuck counting outs and then second-guessing myself. And what about when you’re multi-tabling online? Does that mess with your ability to keep track of probabilities, or is it just a matter of practice? Would love to hear your take!

FrostWolf

Man, if you think poker’s just about luck, you’re missing the whole game! Probability isn’t some boring math class—it’s your secret weapon. Every hand, every bet, every bluff? It’s all numbers screaming at you to make the right move. Odds aren’t just cold calculations; they’re the pulse of the table. Feel them. Use them. Crush it. You wanna fold that decent hand? Fine. But did you check the pot odds? Did you count the outs? Or are you just guessing like some amateur? Stop leaving money on the table because you didn’t do the damn math. The difference between a fish and a shark isn’t guts—it’s knowing when the numbers are screaming YES. And variance? Yeah, it’ll kick you in the teeth sometimes. But that’s why discipline matters. Play the odds, not the emotions. The cards don’t care about your bad beats. The math doesn’t lie. So either respect it or get wrecked. Your call.

Henry Dawson

**”How often do you adjust your bluffing frequency based on pot odds versus implied odds in late-stage tournaments? I’ve noticed some players stick rigidly to math in early rounds but shift to more exploitative moves near the bubble—do you think that’s a leak or a smart adaptation? For example, if you’re facing a 20% chance to win but the pot’s laying 5:1, do you still fold marginal draws against known tight opponents, or do you factor in their tendency to overfold under pressure? Curious how others balance these calculations when ICM implications muddy the pure probability math.”** *(498 символов)*

Ethan Reynolds

*”Ah, poker math—where ‘I have a 13% chance’ magically becomes ‘basically a lock’ after two beers. Sure, the odds say your flush draw hits 1 in 5 times, but your gut insists it’s more like 1 in 2, especially after that third whiskey. And let’s not forget pocket aces, the statistical darlings that somehow evaporate the second some clown calls your all-in with 7-2 offsuit. Probability is cold, hard logic; poker is you yelling ‘HOW?’ at the dealer while he shrugs. The only sure bet? You’ll blame variance faster than a politician blames the other guy.”*

William

The discussion of probability in poker often oversimplifies the psychological aspect. Calculating pot odds or equity is straightforward, but human behavior isn’t. Opponents don’t always follow Nash equilibria or GTO—they tilt, overvalue weak hands, or misread bluffs. Math alone won’t save you if you ignore how players react under pressure. Also, the focus on preflop charts feels robotic. Memorizing ranges is useful, but adaptability matters more. A 15% edge means nothing if you can’t exploit someone who folds too much or calls too wide. The math is a tool, not the game. Over-reliance on probabilities without adjusting for table dynamics turns you into a predictable bot. And let’s be honest—most players overestimate their ability to apply theory mid-hand. The gap between knowing odds and using them well is huge.

Joseph

*”Oh wow, so you’re telling me that folding 72-off preflop is mathematically sound? What’s next, water is wet? Or do you just enjoy stating the obvious while pretending it’s some grand revelation?”*

Andrew

“Cold math won’t save you when the river bet stares back. Probability’s a merciless tutor—misread it, and your stack bleeds out. Odds whisper, but tilt screams. Too many treat implied odds like gospel, forgetting how often the table laughs at faith. Fold equity? More like ego’s last refuge. If you’re not grinding your brain raw over Bayesian updates post-flop, you’re just donating blinds. And don’t kid yourself: GTO’s a scaffold, not salvation. The cards don’t care about your epiphanies.” (416 chars)

Sophia Martinez

*”I’ve been playing poker for years, and while the math seems straightforward, I’m curious—how do you balance probability with intuition at the table? For example, when you’re facing a tight opponent who suddenly overbets the river, do you trust the odds saying they’re rarely bluffing, or do you factor in their hesitation, timing, or past behavior? The numbers might say fold, but sometimes the ‘feel’ screams call. Has anyone else found themselves in spots where strict probability-based decisions cost them pots they knew they could win? Or is relying on gut just a fast track to burning through your stack? Would love to hear how others reconcile the cold math with the messy human element.”* *(498 characters)*

Evelyn Clark

*”You ever sit there, staring at the river while your stack bleeds out, wondering if the math really mattered? Like, you calculated the pot odds, knew the percentages cold—but your gut still twisted when that third heart hit. How often do we cling to probabilities like they’re some kind of armor, only to fold when the human part of us screams? Or worse, call anyway, just to prove the numbers wrong? Maybe it’s not about the odds at all, but the stories we tell ourselves between bets. Who else here has pushed all-in on a 20% shot and felt more alive losing than winning some safe, soulless pot?”*

StormChaser

Wow, another genius trying to explain poker math like it’s rocket science. Congrats, you managed to regurgitate basic probability anyone with half a brain already knows. ‘Calculate your outs’—no kidding, Sherlock. Maybe next time try not to sound like a textbook written by a sleep-deprived undergrad. And yeah, odds matter, but if you play like a scared fish, no amount of math will save you from punting your stack. Real players don’t need this kindergarten-level breakdown to figure out when to call or fold. Keep overcomplicating simple concepts though, really helps the clueless feel smart for five seconds.

Liam Bennett

Cold cards and dead draws—math whispers, but luck shouts. The flop laughs at your calculations, the river mocks your hopes. Every all-in feels like a confession of faith in chaos. Numbers don’t lie, but they don’t care either. Fold or call, the void grins back.

Emma Wilson

*”Oh, the sweet irony of poker math—where calculating your 20% chance to hit a flush feels like genius until some clown with a 2% river suckout reminds you probability is just a polite suggestion. Yeah, you can obsess over pot odds like a monk over scripture, but variance loves humbling the smug. ‘Expected value’? Cute. Tell that to the guy who shoved with 72o and cracked your aces. The real skill isn’t memorizing charts—it’s not losing your damn mind when the numbers betray you. Because they will. Repeatedly. And if you think otherwise, you’re either lying or haven’t played enough hands to know better.”*

Mia

Oh, honey, let me tell ya—probability ain’t just some dry math thing in poker! It’s that sneaky little whisper in your ear when you’re staring down a river card, sweating bullets. You *feel* it when you call with a gutshot, praying to the poker gods, but deep down? The numbers already decided. And odds? Pfft! They’re like your sassy best friend who *always* tells you when you’re being dumb. “Girl, that flush draw’s only hitting 20% of the time—stop throwing chips at it!” But do we listen? Nah. We chase. We tilt. Then we cry into our stack. The real trick? Knowing when to fold ‘em, even when your heart’s screaming “ONE MORE CARD!” Math don’t lie, but oh, how we wish it would sometimes.

ShadowReaper

*”Ugh, another poker ‘expert’ trying to sound smart with math! Like, wow, you figured out that 2:1 odds mean something—congrats, genius. Real players don’t sit there calculating percentages like robots while their stack bleeds out. If you actually played, you’d know half these ‘probabilities’ get wrecked by some maniac shoving all-in with 7-2. And don’t even get me started on implied odds—yeah, sure, pretend you always know what the other guy’s gonna do next. Pure fantasy. This whole thing reads like a textbook for people who’ve never felt the adrenaline of a big bluff. Keep your graphs and equations; I’ll stick with reading the table and crushing souls.”*